The tensions in the Middle East have grown since the massacre of Israeli citizens by the militant group Hamas on October 7th, 2023. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria have carried out attacks in regions where there is a US military presence. The main goal of the US troops in Iraq and Syria has been to prevent the return of the Islamist State group ISIS, which has terrorized the Middle East in the past. Before the October 7th attack, Iranian-backed militias and the US had private negotiations about Iran’s nuclear program and the release of American detainees. There has been a long history of the Islamic Republic of Iran being a key financial supporter of Hamas. This support has connected Iran to Hammas, and as a result complicated these negotiations. The recent Hammas attack on innocent Israeli citizens put an end to any truce that was being developed between the US and Iran-aligned groups.
After months of back-and-forth strikes between the US and Iran-backed militias, on January 28th, three US service members were killed and at least 34 wounded in a drone attack by Iran-backed militants in northeastern Jordan near the Syrian border. The US response was swift, with an air assault on over eighty-five sites in Iraq and Syria, all zones used by Iran-backed militias. The attack did not harm areas that were occupied by senior leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, a move recognized by most as a way to avoid escalation of the tensions that already exist in the region. After this directed attack, Iran threatened to “decisively respond” to any US attack on the Islamic Republic. No more than a week later was the leader of Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militant group, and two of his guards killed in a US drone attack. The Pentagon concluded that the commander who was killed in the drone attack was directly responsible for attacks on American troops in the region.
The biggest fear of most experts at this point is an escalation of these strategic attacks to an all-out war in the Middle East – an event that would not only destabilize the region even more, but would lead to a huge loss of life. The other concern is an escalation of the shadow war between Israel and Iran. On Feb 16th, 2024, officials confirmed that Israel was behind attacks on major gas pipelines in Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, did not respond to the matter, while Iranian officials condemned the attack on the country’s energy infrastructure. The attacks appeared more of a message, as there were no injuries or fatalities, and repairs were made easily. Although Iran has claimed it does not want to go to war with the US, it continues to provide aid and arms to militias in the region to fight their proxy battles. Israel and the US have also used cyberattacks to weaken Iran’s communications with their proxy militias fighting on their behalf in the region.
There is still unrest within Iran itself, with the internal rebellion of its youth in support of the Women Life Freedom protest. The Islamic Republic of Iran, ever the manipulative and oppressive government, may use this growth in escalation of the strikes in the region as a distraction. The distraction would be in the form creating a false common enemy that citizens could rally against alongside their government. The Iranian government could have their dissident citizens put down their protest banners in support of fighting a common external enemy. The ultimate goal would be to suppress the momentum of the Women Life Freedom protest. This all can potentially play into the hands of the ultimate Iranian goal in the region: a weaker Israel and the banishment of the US from the region forever. This goal has been gradually worked on by Iran building up regional proxy forces to do its fighting for them while avoiding attacks on its territory. If Iran succeeds, they will have economic and military dominance in the region, and further establish their oppressive religious government.
For now, the US and Iran strike in the Middle East has been a back-and-forth shadow war to control each nation’s interests in the region. A huge concern of the entire world would be the transition of this shadow war to an all-out declaration of war in the Middle East. This is a possible reality no one wants to see come true in the future.
