The Israeli-Hamas War currently underway has shed light upon the various international coalitions and divisions that exist in the complex world of geopolitics. As Israel continues to strike back at Hamas, different groups from all across the globe are determined to make their positions and power known. There are voices from every region demanding an end to the Israeli military campaign, and there are others fervently defending the actions of Netanyahu’s government, which is seemingly in panic.
Iran, the kingpin of the anti-Israeli movement within the Middle East, has attempted to unify its copious proxies to the cause of “resistance.” As a result, the crisis may be brewing out of crisis in the region. Like the small Balkan states and their bigger superpower European protectors in August 1914, this interconnected web of alliances means Israel’s ongoing conflict with Hamas may turn into something bigger. We have already seen existing disputes worsen across the region, with different actors arming up and preparing for potential war. Like the Ukraine-Russian War, this is also a new kind of war: civilian populations are being targeted and some are being used as shields; there are accusations of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide; the range and variety of new weapons and tactics (STING missiles, vast tunnel systems, shoulder-launched weapons, drones, attacks on shipping and trade and the ideological politicizing of events dividing populations and campuses around the globe) have given small groups disproportionate power and have unbalanced the conventional rules of warfare and have increased suffering on an international scale.
For one, on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, the conflict between the Jewish state and the powerful Lebanese Shia political group and archetype of Iranian proxies, Hezbollah (also designated a terrorist group by numerous countries, including the United States), has greatly intensified recently. The two have been exchanging fire nearly every day for the past few months, though an all-out war has successfully been averted, for now. Things may worsen even further though, as Israel warns that time for diplomacy is waning and it may up the ante if no deal is reached between the two that would make Hezbollah move its troops away from the border with Israel. If the terrorist non-state players are raising the stakes, Netanyahu’s government seems equally reckless in expanding the war through rhetoric and action. Hezbollah insists the skirmishes and rocket attacks will not stop nor will the talks begin until a permanent ceasefire is established between Israel and Hamas, one of Hezbollah’s allies. When Hezbollah and Hamas are not busy being rivals, they play a game of violent friendship against common enemies.
A larger war might be inevitable and this war would be disastrous. Hezbollah is significantly stronger than Hamas, and a two-front war could be dangerous for Israel. The United States has suggested that in the case of a Hezbollah-Israel war, it would leave open the option of joining in the defense of Israel, something that could end up a catalyst for further, more direct, Iranian involvement.
Across the Middle East, the United States has become an increasingly important player amidst the rising tensions. Tens of thousands of American troops are stationed across the region, being present in the majority of Middle Eastern countries (see map above). Recent strikes by Iranian-backed groups against American soldiers in Iraq and Syria have alerted the United States and the world to the growing threat of Iran, a nation of almost 90 million that is determined to expand its influence through its proxies and creep up on its enemies, among them Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States. At the same time, American fleets and fighter aircraft are already engaged in air strikes as international trade is threatened and freedom of the seas — in the gulf — is being curtailed.
A clear example of this can be seen in the recent Houthi crisis. The Houthis, another Shia Iranian-backed group deemed terrorists by the United States (a title they lost and regained just recently), have successfully managed to turn global trade upside down in recent weeks, increasing prices and shipping times. The Houthis have struck several commercial ships headed to Israel or with ties to the United States and the United Kingdom, scaring many companies and countries away from shipping their goods through the Red Sea and forcing them to take longer alternative routes. American and British forces responded with airstrikes, which the Houthis embraced as “a great honor and blessing.” The Houthis’ objective, at least according to them, is, just like Hezbollah, to force Israel to stop its fighting in Gaza. In doing so, they have angered many more than just Israel, but especially the United States.
The Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas all stand up for each other. The latter is being battered by an intense Israeli invasion, and as a result, the other two have stepped up their fighting, trying to divert resources and stop the attempted destruction of Hamas, though they claim to have the interests of the innocent Palestinian population in mind. All these groups are working together closely, behind the leadership of Iran, toward a common goal. They all want to destroy Israel and remove American influence, both of which they see as imperialist, from the Middle East forever.
In addition to the direct and violent attacks from Iranian-backed groups in the Middle East, Israel faces a different, but equally important pressure from the international community to cease, or at least calm, its fighting. In some cases, the accusations levied against Israel are quite severe, like how South Africa is taking Israel to the United Nations’ International Court of Justice over their claim that Israel is committing a genocide of Palestinians. An array of significant global players have voiced their support for this particular case including Brazil and Turkey while countries like the United States and the United Kingdom have unsurprisingly harshly criticized the genocide accusation. Germany, a country with a unique history regarding genocide, and one that has shown throughout the past months its commitment to support Israel, plans to intervene in the ICJ as a third party to defend Israel.
On top of the legal issues, Israel is, in general, facing backlash surrounding the continuation of its attack on Gaza, which has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths, a sizable number of which are civilian. While the Biden administration seems to stand firmly behind Israel, it has faced backlash among many Americans on its handling of the issue, both from those who think it has accepted some of Israel’s actions when it shouldn’t have and from those who believe Biden hasn’t done enough to show Israel America’s unconditional support. A December 2023 New York Times poll found that 57% of Americans disapprove of Biden’s handling of the crisis, including almost three-quarters of voters between 18 and 29. While Trump is definitely not a viable alternative for those wishing for more sympathy toward Palestinians, Biden’s handling of the crisis could lead some to abstain from voting at all in 2024, which could make a difference in an election that is looking like it’s going to be close. For Israel, this could mean Biden shifting gears in order to adjust to some voters, putting further pressure on them to end their fighting.
Many more actors are involved in this crisis, whose actions are greatly affecting the outcome of the crisis, than Israel and Hamas. To look solely at these two groups would be to misrepresent the conflict. Both are at least attempting to act in a way that will accomplish their interests while pleasing their allies. The two are influenced and reliant upon external forces that define many of the actions they take. In the case of Israel, it must take into consideration the views of the United States along with the rest of the international community. Hamas must act in a way that keeps Iran funneling in money and weapons while ensuring that Iran’s other proxies also work to help Hamas. However, the end of the conflict will really be determined by leaders making the decisions on the ground and fighting in the war. While the conflict is the culmination of various complex geopolitical factors, it is the Israeli and Palestinian people who have to bear the suffering of this crisis.
