Music’s biggest night returns on Sunday, Feb. 1st. Predicting the outcome of the Grammys is never a precise test; as the Recording Academy has a long history of snubs, overdue recognition, odd omissions and very rarely, getting things right. There’s no doubt that the public’s opinion is far from similar to that of the Recording Academy, which is why I’ll be going through some of the notable categories to predict who I think will win at the 68th ceremony (and compare that to who I think should win).
Record of the Year
Nominees: “DTMF” by Bad Bunny, “Manchild” by Sabrina Carpenter, “Anxiety” by Doechii; “Wildflower” by Billie Eilish, “Abracadabra” by Lady Gaga, “Luther” by Kendrick Lamar & SZA, “The Subway” by Chappell Roan and “APT.” by Rose & Bruno Mars
Should Win: “Luther” by Kendrick Lamar & SZA. This unlikely smash hit topped the Billboard Hot 100 for thirteen consecutive weeks, longer than any other song in 2025. On top of the commercial success it saw, the song is sonically stunning; with Spanish guitars and a Luther Vandross sample backing a traditional Hip-Hop beat.
Will Win: “Abracadabra” by Lady Gaga. This song debuted at the 67th ceremony last year and nearly instantly became a cultural moment. When people look back in 2025 in music, they’ll certainly mark this song as Lady Gaga’s return to form after nearly a decade of meandering around different sounds.
Album of the Year
Nominees: “Debí Tirar Más Fotos by Bad Bunny, “Swag” by Justin Bieber, “Man’s Best Friend” by Sabrina Carpenter, “Let God Sort Em Out” by Clipse, “Mayhem” by Lady Gaga, “GNX” by Kendrick Lamar, “Mutt” by Leon Thomas and “Chromakopia” by Tyler, the Creator
Should Win: “Mutt” by Leon Thomas. This was an unexpected joy the first time I heard it, and an even more joyous experience the second, third and onwards. It’s an odd mix of Steve Lacey-esque soul music with an occasional Frank Ocean flow and addictive Hip-Hop beats.
Will Win: “Debí Tirar Más Fotos” by Bad Bunny. Bad Bunny’s cultural importance has always been present, but this is the first time he’s seen to be part of the monoculture. His winning this award would be the first achievement of dozens to come this year; notably his Super Bowl LX Half-Time performance.
Song of the Year
Nominees: “Abracadabra” by Lady Gaga, “Anxiety” by Doechii, “APT.” by Rose & Bruno Mars; “DTMF” by Bad Bunny, “Golden” by Huntrix, “Luther” by Kendrick Lamar & SZA; “Manchild” by Sabrina Carpenter and “Wildflower” by Billie Eilish
Should Win: “Manchild” by Sabrina Carpenter. The Song of the Year award goes to the best songwriting, and I think Sabrina Carpenter’s chart-topping lead single is some of the best and most clever songwriting she’s ever done. While 2024 was her year of cultural domination, she’s done more effective and creative work in 2025.
Will Win: “Manchild” by Sabrina Carpenter. Through a split vote, I think Carpenter also has a chance to win this category.
Best New Artist
Nominees: Olivia Dean, Katseye, The Marias, Addison Rae, Sombr, Leon Thomas, Alex Warren and Lola Young
Should Win: Leon Thomas. As mentioned above, Leon Thomas has taken me by surprise this year. His confessional songwriting, charming persona and star factor all make him. In a perfect world, he wins; but in a more realistic world, he needs more time to matriculate into the mainstream before winning this award.
Will Win: Olivia Dean. There’s not a person alive at the moment that doesn’t know Olivia Dean; from her effortless appearance to her doo-wop aesthetics, she’s been everywhere this past year. Her presence combined with break through into the mainstream make her the perfect candidate to win.
Best Pop Vocal Album
Nominees: “Swag” by Justin Bieber; “Man’s Best Friend” by Sabrina Carpenter, “Something Beautiful” by Miley Cyrus, “Mayhem” by Lady Gaga and “I’ve Tried Everything but Therapy (Part 2)” by Teddy Swims
Should Win: “Something Beautiful” by Miley Cyrus. “Something Beautiful” is by far my favorite Pop album to come out in 2025. It is experimental to its core with truly interesting sounds and lyricism. It didn’t have enough of a cultural and commercial presence to seize the attention of many, but it should’ve.
Will Win: “Man’s Best Friend” by Sabrina Carpenter. Carpenter won this award for “Short n’ Sweet,” although I find that her follow up is even more impressive; showing her growth in songwriting and experimentation. Not my first pick, but I’d be happy if she won.
Best Alternative Music Performance
Nominees: “Everything Is Peaceful Love” by Bon Iver; “Alone” by The Cure, “Seein’ Stars” by Turnstile, “Mangetout” by Wet Leg and “Parachute” by Hayley Williams
Should Win: “Alone” by The Cure. This would’ve been my choice for Record of the Year had it been nominated. It is nothing short of simply beautiful, with classic The Cure guitars and haunting delivery behind top-tier lyricism. If this was released at The Cure’s peak, it would’ve fared phenomenally, showing their timelessness.
Will Win: “Alone” by The Cure. This would mark The Cure’s first Grammy win after nearly fifty years.
Best Traditional R&B Performance
Nominees: “Here We Are” by Durand Bernarr, “Uptown” by Lalah Hathaway, “Love You Too” by Ledisi, “Crybaby” by SZA and “Vibes Don’t Lie” by Leon Thomas
Should Win: “Crybaby” by SZA. This is SZA at her most authentic and focused. The production reminisces on 60s R&B and Jazz, while making it modern through her personal lyricism. This is perhaps her best song, and is certainly one of my favorites she’s worked on.
Will Win: “Crybaby” by SZA. No songs in the category even seem to approach the level of genius behind “Crybaby.” I would be surprised if she didn’t win.
Best Rap Album
Nominees: “Let God Sort Em Out” by Clipse, “Glorious” by GloRilla; “God Does Like Ugly” by JID; “GNX” by Kendrick Lamar and “Chromakopia” by Tyler, the Creator
Should Win: “Let God Sort Em Out” by Clipse. It’s hard to make a return to music after sixteen years and it’s even harder to make that comeback good. Clipse has tackled both of these quarrels on their fourth studio album. They sound exactly like the Clipse that left us in 2009, only more accomplished, focused and ready to tell us what they’ve been up to all this time.
Will Win: “GNX” by Kendrick Lamar. This is tied head-to-head in quality with the aforementioned, so I would be equally as happy if this one won. Kendrick never fails to make an interesting album, and this is a great addition to his near-perfect discography.
Best Country Song
Nominees: “Bitin’ List” by Tyler Childers, “Good News” by Shaboozey, “I Never Lie” by Zach Top, “Somewhere Over Laredo” by Lainey Wilson, and “A Song to Sing” by Miranda Lambert and Chris Stapleton
Should Win: “Bitin’ List” by Tyler Childers. It is a honky-tonk masterpiece with genuinely hilarious lyrics, that’s deserving enough for me.
Will Win: “A Song to Sing” by Miranda Lambert and Chris Stapleton. These two country legends are sure to take home the award. It is a sweet love song put on top of a groovy country beat.
Best Music Video
Nominees: “Manchild” by Sabrina Carpenter, “So Bet It” by Clipse, “Anxiety” by Doechii, “Love” by OK Go and “Young Lion” by Sade
Should Win: “Young Lion” by Sade. A mini documentary chronicling the story of Sade Adu’s son; with video from his childhood, prior to his transition.
Will Win: “Manchild” by Sabrina Carpenter. This video is equally as deserving as “Young Lion,” just for a different reason. While the former feels like a documentary, this music video feels like every action movie you’ve ever watched squashed into a single three-minute recording.
Best Album Cover
Nominees: “Chromakopia” by Tyler, the Creator, “Debí Tirar Más Fotos” by Bad Bunny, “The Crux” by Djo; “Glory” by Perfume Genius and “Moisturizer” by Wet Leg
Should Win: “The Crux” by Djo. Each time you look at the cover, you can’t help but examine every aspect of the scene. Each time, there’s a new discovery; from the person hanging out the window to the robber escaping from a manhole. Even more impressive is the fact that it was shot in one take, with no AI or editing involved.
Will Win: “Debí Tirar Más Fotos” by Bad Bunny. This cover is the perfect example of simplistic, yet effective. While maybe not the most extravagant or hard-to-pull-off, this cover holds its own meaning as a symbol of Latin American culture.
By the end of the night, the Grammys will do what they’ve always done: substantiate careers, annoy others and ultimately spark debates that matter more than the actual trophies themselves. The Grammys rarely serve as a true measure of artistic greatness, but rather a peak into what the Recording Academy is willing to give flowers to given the cultural moment. Occasionally, the winners of the night align with a narrative of innovation, risk and true experimentation; other times it rewards commercial success and familiarity; and it is sometimes even a mix of the two. Whether it’s overdue recognition of a legacy act like The Cure or a breakthrough moment for newer voices like Leon Thomas, the Grammys this year will reflect the industry that is constantly self-correcting. Come Sunday, not every choice will feel right, but the conversations that will follow remind us why music remains worth caring about.
