After an eventful Week 18, the NFL Playoffs will begin the weekend of January 11 with the Wild Card Round. The Wild Card Round consists of six games, with the top team in each league, the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC and the Detroit Lions in the NFC, receiving a bye until the Divisional Round the following week.
Saturday
(5) Los Angeles Chargers @ (4) Houston Texans (AFC)
The Chargers, under rookie, yet accomplished NFL coach Jim Harbaugh, will travel to Houston to play Coach DeMeco Ryans and quarterback C.J. Stroud, each in their second year. The Chargers, who finished with an 11-6 record, were incredibly successful on both sides of the ball in the regular season, averaging 24 points per game while only giving up 18. Under Harbaugh’s scheme, the run game has been the key to their offense. Running back J.K. Dobbins stayed healthy for most of the season, and with Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal as backups, the Chargers averaged 111 rushing yards per game.
After an auspicious 2023 campaign in which C.J. Stroud took his team to the Divisional Round, the Texans fell slightly in 2024. While Stroud and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik maintained a successful offensive game, especially with the addition of veteran running back Joe Mixon, the defense struggled at times, giving up about 22 points per game.
Prediction: 24-23 Texans
Despite being three-point underdogs, the Texans have the home-field advantage and will succeed in areas where the Chargers won’t. Despite the small sample size, Justin Herbert’s one playoff game did not end well for him or his team, as he threw to just a 58% completion rate (and with an entirely different receiver core and coaching staff) C.J. Stroud, however, showed that despite his young age, he can succeed in the playoffs. In his two playoff starts last season, he threw for three touchdowns and no interceptions, as he finished with a 109.3 passer rating, more than twenty points higher than Herbert’s playoff passer rating. Though LA’s defense is statistically better than Houston’s, they will struggle to keep Houston’s offense off the field and wear down, giving Stroud a slight advantage over Herbert in the game.
(6) Pittsburgh Steelers @ (3) Baltimore Ravens (AFC)
The Steelers and the Ravens, recently two of the most consistent teams in the NFL, will face off in a bitter AFC North showdown between two veteran coaches, Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin and Baltimore’s John Harbaugh. The Steelers, who haven’t had a losing season since 2003, revived Russell Wilson after two disastrous seasons in Denver. Wilson’s 16:5 touchdown to interception ratio and a dominant defense led the Steelers to a 10-7 season.
The Ravens continued to be one of the most ferocious teams of the past decade, finishing with a 12-5 season in 2024. Despite a defense that didn’t quite perform up to expectations, quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry each had arguably MVP-caliber seasons, leading Baltimore to average over 30 points scored per game.
Prediction: 35-24 Ravens
The Steelers will be able to keep the game close if Wilson can connect with George Pickens, their best wide receiver, but there doesn’t seem to be a way for Pittsburgh to stop Harbaugh’s high-powered offense. Even with an elite pass rusher in T.J. Watt and a well-above-average secondary, the Ravens do absolutely everything right on offense, whether it’s in the passing game, rushing game, or Jackson creating first downs from nothing.
Sunday
(7) Denver Broncos @ (2) Buffalo Bills (AFC)
After a few weeks of struggling, rookie first-round quarterback Bo Nix propelled the Broncos to an unexpected playoff berth. Despite a weak run game featuring Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime and no major receivers besides Courtland Sutton, Coach Sean Payton managed to find offensive success, averaging 25 points per game. Denver’s defense has flaws, but still performed better than expected.
In the second half of the regular season, Buffalo, led by quarterback Josh Allen, has easily had the strongest offensive attack. Other than a Week 18 loss in which they didn’t try and benched many of their starters, the Bills have won ten of their last eleven games, with Allen averaging about three total touchdowns a game and less than one turnover per game. Even though they lost their star wide receiver Stefon Diggs in the offseason, players like Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, along with trade-acquisition Amari Cooper have filled in perfectly to create a nearly unstoppable offense.
Prediction: 37-27 Bills
The Bills should have no trouble scoring early, as they will balance a strong run game with James Cook and Josh Allen with occasional passes to spread out Denver’s defense. Bo Nix will have some success against Buffalo’s defense, especially in garbage time, but not nearly enough to keep up with the Bills. Expect the Bills to wear down Denver and dominate in the running game.
(7) Green Bay Packers @ (2) Philadelphia Eagles (NFC)
Green Bay second-year quarterback Jordan Love struggled early in 2024 with interceptions, throwing eight in his first five games. However, he’s found his footing, throwing his most recent interception back in Week 10. Though Love hasn’t had any dominant games during this stretch, running back Josh Jacobs has continuously bullied defenses behind the Packers’ strong offensive line. In his first year in Green Bay, Jacobs has averaged about 4.5 yards per carry with sixteen touchdowns from scrimmage. With an improved defense, Green Bay, led by Coach Matt LaFleur, looks to upset the resurgent Philadelphia Eagles.
After a disappointing fall-off in 2023, culminating in a Wild Card loss to Tampa Bay, Coach Nick Sirianni remained with the team and didn’t disappoint. The Eagles finished the 2024 regular season 14-3, led by the best offensive line in the league and running back Saquon Barkley, who was signed in free agency, led the NFL with 2,005 rushing yards and 2,283 total scrimmage yards.
Prediction: 34-29 Eagles
This battle between two of the NFL’s strongest offenses projects to be a shootout in which the team that has the ball last will win. Jacobs and Barkley will likely both have over 100 all-purpose yards. Even though the Packers and Eagles both have strong secondaries, they also have two of the best offensive lines, which will give both Love and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts enough time to find receivers. A two-minute drive to end the game will win this one for Philadelphia. A strong home-field advantage for Philly, who is 8-1 at home this season, will also impact the end of this game.
(6) Washington Commanders @ (3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC)
In a rematch of the Week 1 game in which the Buccaneers dominated 37-20, the Commanders, under first-year coach and quarterback Dan Quinn and Jayden Daniels, will travel back to Tampa for revenge. As the best rookie quarterback, Daniels has led his team to unprecedented success. Under the auspices of offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, he passed for a 25:9 touchdown to interception ratio with 262 total yards per game. Despite a defense that ranked 18th in points allowed, the Commanders finished the season with a 12-5 record.
Despite only going 10-7, Tampa Bay won the NFC South for the fourth consecutive season. Quarterback Baker Mayfield, the 2018 first-overall pick, led the NFC with 41 passing touchdowns and finished second with 4,500 passing yards, despite throwing for an NFC-leading 16 interceptions, Even though the Buccaneers employed an incredibly pass-heavy offense, running backs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White combined to provide one of the strongest rushing duos in the league, averaging almost 150 rushing yards per game.
Prediction: 27-23 Buccaneers
This game could truly go either way, but with Dan Quinn’s over-aggressive play calling, Tampa Bay could be granted multiple drives starting around midfield. Jayden Daniels’ rushing ability may be enough to outscore Mayfield and the Buccaneers, but Mayfield’s connection with star receiver Mike Evans and Irving and White’s multifaceted run game will likely be too much for Quinn’s defense to handle.
Monday
(5) Minnesota Vikings @ (4) Los Angeles Rams (NFC)
After a brutal Week 18 loss to the Detroit Lions, the Vikings were relegated to the fifth seed while the Lions received a bye. They will now travel to Los Angeles to face the Rams, who, after a 1-4 start, burst onto the scene and won the NFC West.
Though they drafted Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy in the first round of the 2024 Draft, his injury led to Sam Darnold’s becoming the starting quarterback. A first-round pick who was, of course, wasted by the New York Jets, Darnold had previously been a backup for the Carolina Panthers and the San Francisco 49ers. However, coached by Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota, Darnold started all seventeen games and finished sixth in the league in QB rating with 102.5 and fifth in yards and touchdowns with 4,319 and 35, respectively.
The Rams have one of the steadiest offenses in the league, with veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford, running back Kyren Williams and a receiver duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Stafford, though no longer a star, finished 15th with a 93.7 QB rating and 13th in yards with 3,762. Although their defense is average at best, their consistent offense has generally proven to make up for that – as seen with their 10-7 record with a defense that gave up about 22 points per game.
Prediction: 26-17 Vikings
Rams coach Sean McVay won’t have an answer to Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ formations or blitzes, and Stafford will constantly be under pressure. Additionally, McVay’s constant need to go for it on fourth down will result in unnecessary risks, benefitting the Vikings. The Vikings will jump out early with a lead and assuming they can keep pressuring Stafford, they’ll be victorious.
Though it’s just the first round, this weekend will reveal the flaws in teams that had been thought to be contenders but were, in fact, just pretenders. The Lions and Chiefs are projected to face each other in the Super Bowl. Still, teams like the Ravens, Bills and Eagles are all expected to contend, and the road to the championship begins this weekend.
