Despite widespread predictions of a tightly contested election, Trump secured a landslide victory. He not only swept all seven swing states but also won the majority of the popular vote. What stood out most, however, was the striking shift across nearly all U.S. counties—both historically liberal and conservative—toward the right. Many of us at Fieldston woke up Wednesday morning speechless and dumbfounded, scratching our heads and wondering: how exactly did this happen? These three graphs explain Harris’s unexpected defeat:
Harris Was Unable to Distance Herself From Biden
Source: Google Sheets Graph Made From Gallup Data
According to Gallup, from May to September 2021, Biden’s approval rating dropped sharply from the mid-50s to the low 40s, largely due to the widely criticized withdrawal from Afghanistan. By the time Biden decided not to seek reelection, his approval rating had plummeted to 36%. This left Vice President Harris with just 107 days to define her platform and distance herself from his administration, a difficult task given public perception. Despite efforts to rebrand her candidacy with slogans like “turning the page,” many voters saw Vice President Harris’s candidacy as a continuation of Biden’s presidency.
Harris faced a significant challenge in defining how her leadership would diverge from Biden’s. During a pivotal interview on The View, Harris was asked, “Would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?” Her response, “There is not a thing that comes to mind,” was seized by the Trump campaign and used in ads juxtaposed with perceived shortcomings of the Biden-Harris administration. This comment was widely regarded as a misstep in her campaign.
Voters Saw Trump As the Centrist Candidate
Source: Google Sheets Graph Made From NYT/Sienna Data
The second New York Times/Sienna Poll is perhaps the most surprising: Voters perceived Trump as the more centrist candidate. Nationally, less than one-third of voters saw Trump as too conservative, while 44% of voters polled saw Harris as too liberal. Shockingly, half of voters believed Trump struck a balanced position, compared to only 42% who felt the same about Harris. In a deeply polarized political period, where 16% of Americans decided which presidential candidate to vote for in the final days before the election, winning over undecided moderates (especially in swing states) became essential. Perceptions of centrist policies played a decisive role.
Trump Made Gains Among Young Men
Source: Google Sheets Graph Made From Associated Press Data
The final graph, built using data from the Associated Press, reveals a key factor behind the 2024 election results: Trump’s surprising gains among young men. Between 2020 and 2024, Trump increased his support from male voters aged 18 to 29 by 15%. This shift is largely attributed to his appearances on podcasts hosted by figures like Jake Paul, Adin Ross, Joe Rogan, Theo Von and the Nelk Boys. As a Conservative interviewed by The Wall Street Journal put it, “Older men can congregate around CNBC or golf. But not so much the younger guys. “You’ve got a show named ‘The View.’ Five women sitting down talking. Is there an equivalent for men?” Online communities filled this void.
The 2024 election highlights the ever-changing landscape of American politics and the critical role of perception in shaping outcomes. The results underscore how voter sentiment can be swayed by strategic positioning, media influence and the ability to connect with key demographics. Vice President Harris’s challenge in differentiating herself from an unpopular administration, the reframing of Trump as a centrist figure and his innovative outreach to young male voters collectively reshaped the electoral landscape in expectation-defying ways. Importantly, the election also underscored a deeper sentiment: 67% of Americans believe we need to heal as a nation. Moving forward, this call for unity and the lessons of 2024 will likely shape the strategies of future candidates and campaigns for years to come.
