Another MLB regular season has come to an end, and the postseason begins presently. For the second season in a row, the bracket wasn’t decided until the final Sunday of the season. Then, the Cincinnati Reds locked in their spot (not by their own doing but by the Mets’ losing), and the Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Tampa Bay Rays to win the American League #1 seed over the New York Yankees. Four best-two-out-of-three series at the stadium of the home team take place this round; below are my predictions.
American League
Boston Red Sox (5) @ New York Yankees (4)
The classic rivalry between the good guys and the bad guys (needless to say which are which). The Yankees, after signing southpaw ace Max Fried, veteran outfielder Cody Bellinger, and unfortunately, former closer Devin Williams, experienced little World Series hangover, emerging as a contender from April. With yet another dominant season from captain Aaron Judge and Fried’s first season of 30+ starts since 2022, New York finished with 94 wins and hopes for another World Series run.
While the Yankees and general manager Brian Cashman went all-in on 2025, the Red Sox seemed to be selling when they, on June 15, traded star third baseman Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants for Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, James Tibbs III and Jose Bello, none of whom matches Devers’ stardom. Even with this loss, though, Cy Young candidate Garrett Crochet and a reborn closer in Aroldis Chapman carried Boston to an 89-win season.
Prediction: 2-1 Red Sox
I expect both of the first two games of this series to be on the lower-scoring end, with Crochet and Brayan Bello starting for the Red Sox, and Fried and Carlos Rodón for the Yankees. The third game, though, should decide the series. Despite what fans and radio hosts say, the Yankees continued to rely on Judge this season. However, he’s historically horrendous in the playoffs. He may show improvement and even perform better than Mario Mendoza, but the Red Sox should string runs together in the rubber game better than New York and advance to play the Blue Jays.
Detroit Tigers (6) @ Cleveland Guardians (3)
The second worst collapse this season, Detroit led the AL Central by ten games on September 3. It proceeded to lose in every possible fashion and let the Guardians’ hot streak not only sneak them into the playoffs but let them win the division. Despite the collapse, the Tigers maintain one of the most consistent lineups in MLB, with eight of nine starters reaching an above average OPS+.
Cleveland, with the 26th highest payroll, was thought to be a potential seller earlier in the season. Wisely, general manager Mike Chernoff elected to stay conservative at the deadline, trading away only the injured Shane Bieber and reliever Paul Sewald. They went 34-20 after the deadline, with standout performances from Jose Ramirez (of course) and “rookie” first baseman Kyle Manzardo. The Guardians overtook the Tigers directly, winning 2-1 in a series the last week of the regular season.
Prediction: 2-1 Tigers
The Tigers should win with ace Tarik Skubal in Game 1, but Cleveland’s lefty bats, especially Ramirez, Manzardo and Steven Kwan, should come alive against Casey Mize (projected) in Game 2. Still, the Tigers strong bullpen aided with trade deadline acquisition Kyle Finnegan should lead them to a Game 3 victory and a trip to Seattle.
National League
San Diego Padres (5) @ Chicago Cubs (4)
The Padres exceeded expectations this season, contending heavily with the Dodgers for the NL West title. Though supposed ace Dylan Cease never figured it out and finished with a 4.55 ERA, and veteran Yu Darvish struggled when he wasn’t on the injured list, manager Mike Shildt got everything that he needed from his bullpen. Closer Robert Suarez was again near the league leaders with 40 saves, along with a 2.97 ERA, and Adrián Morejón, Jeremiah Estrada and trade deadline acquisition Mason Miller all shut down lineups late in games, with ERAs of 2.05, 3.45 and 2.63, respectively.
The Cubs did everything that they needed to do except win the NL Central. On the hitting side, Seiya Suzuki and sophomores Michael Busch and Pete-Crow Armstrong each reached 30 home runs, and Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker each stole over 20 bases. Chicago (definitely not the White Sox) finished with 4.9 runs scored per game, the fifth best mark in the league. And on the pitching side, though Justin Steele had his annual injury and Shota Imanaga began to struggle, Rookie of the Year candidate Cade Horton became one of the NL’s best starters in the second half, with a post-All-Star Break ERA of 1.03.
Prediction: 2-1 Padres
With no Horton due to a rib fracture, the Cubs’ starters get far worse and will likely not get deep into games. Manager Craig Counsell will likely need to rely on his bullpen in the first two games, and a possible third game would heavily favor Shildt’s deeper ‘pen.
Cincinnati Reds (6) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (2)
With the Mets’ classic September failures, Cincinnati snuck into the NL Wild Card. Despite his 37 steals and above average OPS+, young shortstop Elly De La Cruz largely underperformed, hitting only 22 home runs with a .777 OPS and more than a strikeout per game. Second baseman Matt McLain also underperformed, hitting just .220 with 15 home runs after hitting .292 with 16 home runs in just half a season in 2023 (missed ‘24 due to injury). So the pitching had to carry the Reds: starters Hunter Greene (2.76 ERA), Andrew Abbott (2.87) and Nick Lodolo (3.33) combined for 37 quality starts; relievers Emilio Pagan and Tony Santillan carried the eighth and ninth innings for manager Terry Francona, with respective ERAs of 2.88 and 2.44 and 39 saves between them.
Injuries riddled the Dodgers starting rotation once again. Only Yoshinobu Yamamoto completed 30 starts, while none of Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki completed more than 22 starts. The front-four of the lineup, Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith, proved enough, though. They combined for 116 home runs and a .281 batting average.
Prediction: 2-0 Dodgers
The Reds are just not good enough to keep up with manager Dave Roberts’ lineup, even before factoring in the bullpen. The Dodgers should steamroll Cincinnati with a combination of quality starting pitching, clutch relief work and home run power throughout the lineup, and advance to face the Philadelphia Phillies.
This Wild Card Round should bring a thrill throughout MLB, with young, up-and-coming teams including the Tigers and Reds competing against powerhouses like the Dodgers and Yankees. Every series has the potential to go the distance, and without commissioner Rob Manfred’s baby runner on second base in extra innings, we can finally expect some never-ending 12 inning games with eight pitchers used by each team.
