After 15 months of nonstop fighting following Hamas’s October 7, 2023, terrorist attack inside Israel, phase one of a ceasefire deal has been achieved as of Sunday, January 19.
Primarily brokering that deal were Israelis David Barnea and Ronen Bar, Hamas negotiator Khalil al-Hayya, Americans Steve Witkoff and Brett McGurk, Qatari Sheikh Muhammad Bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani and Egyptian Hassan Rashad. The deal will see Hamas return, in the first stage, 33 Israeli hostages who were taken on October 7 in exchange for numerous conditions: Israel will free around 1900 Palestinian prisoners, many of whom have been convicted of violent crimes. In addition, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw from certain parts of Gaza that it now occupies, only holding on to a thin buffer inside of Gaza that protects the border with Israel and a small section of land known as the Netzarim corridor.
Source: Middle East Eye
The various sides and countries involved (five in total) have different people working and negotiating on their behalf. For Israel, David Barnea, the head of Mossad has been leading negotiations and working closely with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other political advisors in Israel. Alongside him is Ronen Bar, the head of Shin Bet, Israel’s internal intelligence agency. He deals primarily with which Palestinian prisoners will be exchanged.
For Hamas, Khalil al-Hayya, the head of Hamas’s political bureau is the main negotiator. He has become more powerful following the death of Yahya Sinwar, who was killed by Israeli forces, according to AP News.
Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy to the Middle East, and Brett McGurk, the primary Middle East advisor for former President Joe Biden, have worked together in negotiations for the United States. Since Hamas will not hold direct talks with Israel or the United States and vice versa, Qatar and Egypt play an important role in mediating the negotiations. Sheikh Muhammad, prime minister and foreign minister of Qatar, leads negotiations, which most recently took place in Doha, Qatar’s capital. Hassan Rashad, head of Egyptian intelligence, is the chief negotiator for Egypt.
This deal has been in the works for months and months. The United States (including both Biden’s and Trump’s –before he was in office– administrations) has been working tirelessly alongside the other aforementioned countries, to get Israel and Hamas to agree to some kind of a deal. United States former Secretary of State Antony Blinken worked around the clock to help arrive at an agreement. The Biden administration actually put forth a deal with almost the exact same terms in May 2024, but it took until now for both sides to be willing to actually agree to it. The timing is by no means random, and in reality, considerable factors pushed Israel and Hamas to come to a deal now.
Source: The Times of Israel
For one, both Israel and Hamas are to some extent tired of the fighting. Israel has seen pressure, both internal and external, which weakened the popularity of its government, which has been embattled for several years, even before October 7. The reported high number of civilian casualties (among the more than 40,000 dead in Gaza) has put pressure on Israel to slow down its fighting. Hamas, on the other hand, has seen its capabilities hugely weakened by over a year of Israeli attacks. Not only did it fail to destroy Israel by starting a “regional war” on October 7, but Hamas’s international support has also been debilitated in numerous ways: Syria’s Assad government has fallen, and Hezbollah in Lebanon has sustained major losses through unexpected targeted high-tech attacks. Iran has seen almost all of its proxies (allies of Hamas in the “axis of resistance”) damaged and its reputation was shaken as military targets inside Iran were struck by Israeli planes and missiles, for which Iran has been politically embarrassed and has come up short as a regional power. Additionally, many of Hamas’s main leaders have been killed.
Secondly, the incoming Trump administration pushed heavily for a deal. While President Trump’s public remarks, (like when he said just days before his inauguration that “all hell will break out” if Hamas does not release the hostages by the time he takes office), have certainly worked to pressure Hamas, they have also pressured Israel. They showed that he wanted a deal and fast. Netanyahu is eager to build back as close a relationship as possible with Donald Trump. He knows Trump is typically a strong backer of Israel but that his recent position has become more nuanced and he wanted a ceasefire and for the war to end. Working with the Biden administration in an unprecedented case of cooperation, the Trump administration played a key role in getting a deal done before the inauguration on January 20. In fact, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, insisted that Netanyahu meet with him on the sabbath (something Netanyahu only does in special situations) to get the deal done, showing Trump’s insistence on getting things done as fast as possible and in time for his inauguration. The fact is both Biden and Trump deserve credit for the deal.
So far things have gone smoothly, but we are only in the first of three stages of the deal, each meaning to last 42 days. As stated previously, the first stage will see the release of certain Israeli hostages (women, children and elderly) in exchange for a vastly greater number of Palestinian prisoners, an Israeli withdrawal from parts of Gaza and the allowing of significant amounts of aid to enter Gaza.
If the first stage goes smoothly for both sides, negotiations will begin regarding the details of the second stage. If the second stage is reached and its terms are agreed upon, a situation which very well may not occur, then negotiations for a third stage will also begin. A hypothetical second stage would likely require Hamas to release the remaining living hostages, both civilian and soldiers, while Israel would release a number (unknown as of now) of Palestinian prisoners. This exchange, however, would not occur until all Israeli troops withdraw from Gaza, another likely component of the second stage. The third stage would see Hamas return the bodies of dead/murdered hostages in exchange for even more prisoners held by Israel. This stage would also likely require Israel and Egypt to end their joint blockade of Gaza. Hamas would also promise not to rebuild its military arsenal.
Source: The Times of Israel
What remains unclear, however, is the future of Gaza, including who will run it and what role the terrorist group Hamas will play. The Palestinian Authority, led by Mahmoud Abbas, quickly said it would step up and govern the roughly 25-mile strip. They promised to help rebuild the area, return people to their homes, restore water and electricity and manage crossings. It is uncertain if this situation can truly take place, however, and only time will tell. As of now, there is absolutely no guarantee the current ceasefire will hold for much longer. What is certain, though, is that an incredible amount of money, from a presently unknown source, will need to be poured into Gaza if it is to be rebuilt.
In Israel, the reaction to the deal is mixed. While a majority of Israelis support a deal that sees the release of all hostages (if this current deal does not reach the second phase it will not be that), a good number do not. The most extreme in Israel’s already quite right-wing government, for example, stand in staunch opposition to the deal. Itamar Ben-Gvir, known in Israel and perhaps across the world as leading the most radical party in Israel’s coalition, has already decided to resign his party from the governing coalition in response to Netanyahu’s agreement to a deal. As he sees it, it is absolutely imperative that Israel completely obliterates Hamas, even despite the outcome for the hostages. Ben-Gvir called the deal a “surrender” to Hamas. Another far-right party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, remains in the coalition for now but would likely leave if Israel proceeds to a second stage of the deal, potentially forcing Netanyahu to choose between pursuing the second stage or maintaining his already fragile government.
But even for those Israelis who ultimately support the deal, the reaction is bittersweet. While the return of the hostages is an important development in repairing the torn relationship between the Israeli people and their government, which many of them felt failed following October 7, it comes at a cost. People realize the major risks posed by the release of such a vast number of Palestinian prisoners, many of which convicted murderers. It is especially hard to forget that Yahya Sinwar himself, the mastermind of October 7, was released by Israel in a 2011 prisoner exchange that saw Israel trade more than 1000 Palestinian prisoners for one soldier. Many of the prisoners now being released certainly leave Israeli prisoners with a continued burning hatred for that country and its people, and the risk they pose for future terrorist attacks remains ever-present. The old fear is that Israel might have sown “dragon’s teeth” through its policies.
Furthermore, leaving Hamas standing and likely remaining in control of Gaza is another risk. The group is far from fully destroyed. As the first three hostages of this deal were released, they were surrounded by masked Hamas gunmen (see photo below), a clear sign that Hamas remains alive. Destroying Hamas was one of Netanyahu’s main promises in waging this war, and thus far it has failed. While Israel may be more attentive now to future attacks from Hamas, the terrorist group still may hold or be able to rebuild the capability to be extremely destructive to Israel, its soldiers and civilians alike.
Source: CNN
As of now, the deal stands, but it is incredibly fragile. A whole host of different factors could put the long-awaited deal to a sudden end and launch Israel and Hamas back into a state of war. But, on the other hand, the deal could go well. It could lead to lasting peace and could allow Israel to resume its streak of making deals and normalizing ties with neighboring Arab countries, bolstering its position in the region and challenging Iran. But, no matter what, a vast number of obstacles will need to be overcome for peace to stay intact, and everyday things could change. Only time will tell what the future holds.
