As fires rage in southern California, Americans wonder how Donald J. Trump’s second presidential term, which started on January 20, 2025, will affect the climate. The answer, according to most climate activists, is incredibly concerning. During his first term, Trump supported the protests of climate change deniers, while tearing down many protections for the environment both nationally and internationally. This included reversing over 125 environmental policies in the US. At his inaugural he was a cheerleader for fossil fuels chanting
“Drill baby drill.”
While most Americans focus on the environmental impact of Trump’s policies, there are also very real health impacts on US citizens that result from his blatant disregard for the realities of climate change. According to the Lancet Commission Public Policy and Health in the Trump Era, Trump’s climate policies caused the death of 22,000 people in 2019 alone, primarily due to air pollution.When looking to the next four years, Americans will be confronted with possible changes in renewable energy, international climate agreements, resurgence of fossil fuels energy use and the future of electric vehicles.
On the international stage, the Trump administration promises to make waves immediately by withdrawing, for the second time, from the Paris Climate Agreement. President Obama had first signed on to be a part of the Paris Climate Agreement, which was created to combat climate change worldwide. President Biden brought back an American pledge to the international efforts backed by the Paris Climate Agreement during his tenure following Trump’s withdrawal during his first presidency. Experts believe the American withdrawal from the agreement will weaken the effort to control climate change. Another domino that might fall with Trump’s second presidency is US involvement in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. If Trump gets his way and has the US withdraw from this important UN initiative, that would leave China in the driver’s seat in terms of climate change negotiations. This is a development many experts fear would potentially be disastrous.
Back on American soil, Trump’s plans for climate change policies may include pulling the plug on clean energy in the US. In 2022, President Biden helped pass the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which helped provide subsidies and tax breaks for clean energy. This clean energy included wind and solar farms that stored energy, creating power to electrify vehicles and build heating systems. In addition, this clean energy provides a source of power for various industries like artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrency, both of which require large data centers. It is important to note that the IRA was passed with zero congressional Republican support. Despite this lack of support, most of the financial support provided by the IRA for clean energy is going to red districts controlled by the very same Republicans who voted against the act. As a result, some experts believe cuts to the IRA attempted by Trump may not make his fellow Republicans happy, making this goal of Trump’s an uphill battle. However, Trump may use the IRS as a weapon to make these tax cuts and subsidies from the IRA difficult to obtain by states.
Another guaranteed reversal of policy by the Trump administration involves the current environmental rules on motor vehicles. The Obama and Biden presidencies saw some of the most significant strengthening of emissions standards in the US, with California now leading the charge with the highest standards to date. These newer emissions standards have led to a renaissance of cleaner cars on American roads. Trump, however, is expected to push the EPA and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to roll back emissions standards for vehicles on US roadways. This loosening of emissions standards could potentially disincentivize automakers from innovating in the field of electric cars. Trump will likely try to slash existing tax subsidies for electric car buyers provided by the IRA, which could result in decreased consumer demand for electric vehicles.
Finally, dirty energy may be a big winner in the second Trump administration. Trump has long been a supporter of so-called “clean coal” and ignored the fact that coal plants are the second leading supplier of greenhouse gases in the world. Last year, the EPA issued a new rule requiring coal plants to install carbon capture and sequestration facilities or risk being closed down; these requirements are costly and likely something that the coal plants recognize would not make them profitable. The coal plants have turned around and sued the EPA for the new carbon capture rules they have championed. Trump will likely support the lawsuits by coal plants against the EPA that hope to put a stop to the new rules. No modern president has liked drilling for oil and natural gas more than Trump, who believes increasing drilling for these fossil fuels will deliver his promise to the American people of cheaper energy prices. How will Trump increase drilling? By opening federal lands and waters to drilling for oil and natural gas. These lands include the currently protected Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The impact of this increased fossil fuel drilling will be disastrous for wildlife and the environment.
The next four years of Trump’s second presidency would deal a blow to recent advances made in the fight against climate change. Clean energy will likely be taking a backseat in favor of the dirty energy of fossil fuels. The impact of Trump 2.0 could be disastrous for generations to come.
