On Wednesday, November 6, 2024,
At 2:24 AM Eastern Standard Time, the AP called the state of Pennsylvania for Donald Trump.
At 5:34 AM Eastern Standard Time, the AP called the state of Wisconsin for Donald Trump.
At 12:54 PM Eastern Standard Time, the AP called the state of Michigan for Donald Trump.
And thus, the “Blue Wall” collapsed.
As the bright rays of dawn broke over the nation on the morning of November 6, 2024, America awoke to the announcement of their 47th president. Former President Donald Trump secured his second term in the executive office, defeating the Vice President and Democratic Nominee Kamala Harris and making him the only president other than Grover Cleveland in 1892 to lose then regain the Oval Office.
Trump clinched 312 votes in the Electoral College to Harris’ 226, surpassing the 270 needed for victory by a 42-vote margin. Unlike 2016, when he lost the popular vote, Trump also achieved a 3-million vote lead nationwide. But like 2016, he once again tore down the “Blue Wall”, the term used to refer to the trio of Midwestern states – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – that have reliably backed Democratic presidential nominees since 1992, except for Trump’s dismantling eight years ago. With a total of 44 electors, the Blue Wall has significant power in the Electoral College.
It was therefore no surprise that the Blue Wall was widely regarded as Kamala Harris’ surest path to victory. It was predicted she would win at least one of these crucial states – polls in the week leading up to the election did show a tight race, but Harris held a slight edge in Michigan and Wisconsin. What had happened? Why had they been wrong?
Despite the projections, President-elect Trump swept all three states, albeit by narrow margins. As reported by Business Insider, in Michigan, he defeated Harris by 1.4 points (49.7% to 48.3%). In Pennsylvania, the margin was slightly larger, at 2.1 points (50.6% to 48.5%). Wisconsin had the closest contest, where Trump edged out Harris by a 0.9 point margin (49.7% to 48.8%). With Election Day several weeks behind us, a legion of sleep deprived, caffeine-fueled analysts have completed their final task before going into a four year hibernation: surveying the data to find out what had been the undoing of the Harris campaign.
While Harris performed well in some key Blue Wall counties – such as Montgomery County PA (Check out Lily Saal and Rose Posternak’s article on the Fieldston Community Canvassing Trip there); Dane County, Wisconsin and Oakland County, Detroit – her results were weaker than Biden’s in 2020. In Oakland County, for example, Harris won by 10 points, a sharp decline from Biden’s 15-point victory in 2020. The county, home to many college educated independents and on-the-fence Republicans, was a prime target for the Harris campaign, but higher margins were needed to offset Trump’s gains elsewhere.
Trump retained strong support in critical suburban counties like Waukesha County in WI and Bucks County in PA. His success in flipping regions like Saginaw County, Michigan – which he lost to Biden in 2020 – was pivotal in bolstering his path to the White House.
According to CNN’s exit polling, the economy was considered as the most important issue for 32% of voters, and that these voters broke 80% to 19% for Trump. While Harris aimed to connect with working and middle-class voters, Trump maintained a clear advantage on the issue that lasted through Election Day. Mx. Amore, who teaches Current Events at the Fieldston School, noted the perception of the Democratic Party as the “party of ‘elites’”, and pointed out, “While there were many indicators of a strong economy after the recovery of the COVID-19 pandemic, the inflation crisis last summer left many feeling otherwise. The two campaigns had vastly different explanations for the state of the economy, and Trump’s narrative resonated more with voters.”
Support from organized laborers, or union workers, has been and is vital for Democrats in the Blue Wall, but Harris struggled to maintain this coalition. Harris faced challenges with key non-endorsements from the Teamsters and International Association of Fire Fighters. Within those unions, many rank-and-file members favored Trump, despite Biden’s solid support from similar groups in 2020. In Wisconsin, Trump narrowly defeated Harris, winning 51% of union households compared to her 49%, as Edison Research finds. Harris did win union households in Michigan (58% to 40%) and Pennsylvania (54% to 45%), but those margins weren’t sufficient to secure victories in those states.
Mx. Amore also voiced, “There is a major difference in world affairs compared to 2020, and that can affect voting trends.” In just four years, two new wars have erupted. Many Arab American voters in Dearborn, Michigan were dissatisfied with Biden’s handling of the Gaza conflict and shifted their support to Trump, Business Insider reports.
Trump made significant gains with suburban voters in 2024. The Democratic Party entered the 2024 election hoping to build on the success they had with the group in 2018, 2020, and 2022, but Trump reversed that trend winning suburban voters by 4 points nationally this year (51% to 47%). In 2020, Biden had won the suburbs by 2 points (50% to 48%).
Trump’s support among minority voters also grew, particularly among Black men and Latinos, significantly increased in 2024. Politico suggests that this is due to a “growing share of Black and Latino men” who are “losing faith in the Democratic’s ability to deliver on policies that can benefit them”. Trump doubled his standing with Black men from four years ago and secured nearly half (47%) of Latino men nationwide, according to Fox News exit polling. This support narrowed margins in many cities, including and especially those in the Blue Wall.
Mx. Amore suggests that the inconsistencies in voting patterns stem from a disconnect between political messaging and voters’ lived experience. “When people’s lived experiences are bad, they tend to blame the people in power. The Democratic Party needs to ensure that the story they are telling aligns with people’s realities. They should focus on appealing to people’s actual lived experiences rather than their higher selves.”
Republicans had a strong showing in the Senate as well. They recaptured the majority and unseated Democratic incumbents Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown. Other GOP candidates, such as Ted Cruz in Texas and Rick Scott in Florida, also secured victories.
As the dust settles, one thing is clear. Trump’s victory signals a seismic shift in American politics. On November 6th, in his victory speech to supporters, he declared, “We’ve achieved the most incredible political thing, political victory, that our country has never seen before – nothing like this.” The win is a huge political comeback for Trump, who overcame not just his defeat in the 2020 election, but a fallout from the Capitol riot on January 6th, and a series of legal troubles.
The Blue Wall may have fallen this year, but the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, with their volatile electorates, are poised to stay battlegrounds for the foreseeable future. What remains is a question only future elections can answer: will the Blue Wall rise again, or continue to lie in ruins?
