For the past two years, Russia and Ukraine have existed in a state of constant war. In many ways, this conflict has changed everything, geopolitically, but in many ways, things remain the same. While new strategies of war have developed and nearly 200,000 people have died, neither Russia nor Ukraine has managed to accomplish their main military objectives. It is a war of attrition between a massively resourced authoritarian Russia and a considerably smaller, democratic Ukraine. It is a war in which Ukrainian civilians are targeted and relentlessly bombarded and have been displaced by the millions.
The fight has developed into one of trenches, zig-zagging front lines and increasingly powerful weapons. Like World War One, players in the Ukraine Russia War search for knock out strategies and new weapons to make a crucial difference. In previous articles, we’ve written about the war as “as a drone war,” “a shoulder launched missile war, “a truck platform launched missile war,” “a use of citizen soldiers war,” “an international boycotts or sanctions against Russia war” and we have pointed out the role of the United States and NATO in keeping the Zelensky government and war effort afloat, and the frustrations that come from siege warfare. A new device which Russia recently began to utilize is the “glide bomb.” These bombs are created by adding navigation and wings to old Soviet bombs and are both cheap (~USD $20-30K apiece) and easily produced. In addition, these weapons are incredibly powerful, typically weighing thousands of pounds each. As a result, Russia has been using glide bombs in Ukraine non-stop recently, with some weeks seeing 200 glide bombs dropped in Ukraine. These weapons are an important new development, as they enable Russia to destroy Ukrainian defensive lines easily without risking their own soldiers or tanks. Russia has used these bombs particularly relentlessly in its recent offensive on Kharkiv, causing mass destruction.
Ukraine has been struggling to defend against this new tool of Russia’s both in literal terms and in terms of morale. As Ukrainian security analyst Mariia Zolkina put it, “the military do not feel safe because their fortifications can’t protect them, while civilians living in Kharkiv, people used to living under shelling, can’t escape a bomb which can destroy a seven-storey building.”
Despite all new weapons and strategies being tried out, areas of control have barely changed since the early months of the war. In the maps above, it becomes visible that the lines of the war haven’t really changed at all since September of 2022. Ukraine has been able to hold on to a large majority of its territory and, more importantly, its sovereignty but has been unable to recapture the territory in the east that has been taken by Russia, with its major summer 2023 resulting in a failure. Much of the lack of movement on both sides is due to the trenches that have been dug by both countries as they hope to hold on to whatever territory they possess. Indeed this has produced a type of warfare not dissimilar from the infamous scenes of the trenches of World War I.
Recent days and weeks have also seen Russia mount a major offensive near the city of Kharkiv, in Ukraine’s northeast. Through this Russia has been able to make its biggest gains since 2022, taking roughly 109 square miles of land between May 9 and May 15. Ukraine has, however, managed to keep things under relative control, though Zelenskyy predicts Russia will be moving forward with more offensive and aggressive attacks in the near future.
Despite our seemingly expansive knowledge about the events and developments of the war, many people around the world are kept in the dark as to the details of the conflict and daily life inside the warring states. After all, there are plenty of reasons why leaders on both sides would not want this information entering the public eye. Thankfully for us readers, there are people who can give somewhat of an “inside-scoop.” For this article, we have interviewed a woman who knows the ins and outs of the conflict. Seeking to keep her name anonymous, we will give her the name “Dunya.” Dunya provided plenty of fascinating information on life both in Russia and on the frontlines while also giving her unique insight into what the future of the conflict might look like.
This war is personal for Dunya. She was born in and lived in the former Soviet Union for a great portion of her life, but now lives in New York and has worked in the financial industry for a number of years. She also has a number of close relatives near the Crimea, which is why she keeps up with the conflict so incessantly, worrying about the safety of her family. Other family members include a cousin residing in Moscow and another who is likely currently fighting for Ukraine (though she hasn’t heard from him in over a year). Much of her information is first hand from the messaging platform Telegram, where she sees many front line soldiers and residents from both sides posting about their experiences. She has also been to Russia since the conflict began, being able to provide a look into what life is like there and how things have changed.
This war is certainly one which causes many involved, both Russians and Ukrainians, to feel quite torn. As Dunya put it, “you cannot hate the other side because you have relatives on the other side.” Indeed even winning a great battle can be a hard thing to celebrate for people. Seeing a headline describing a massive loss by the other side may be saddening even if you believe it to be best for your country. This is because you know it could happen to anyone. Anyone who you may know that is fighting this war can be killed and immediately turned into nothing more than part of a number on a headline. This is how Dunya described it. This is the feeling of despair that many soldiers experience.
Similarly, after visiting Russia recently, and talking to the people who live there, Dunya noticed that a majority of Russian people have no feelings of hatred toward the Ukrainian population. Instead she learned that most Russians view Ukrainians as brainwashed by the Ukrainian government, a force they see as anti-Russian and not representative of the broader Ukrainian population. She did, however, mention that there was a (small) portion of the Russian population that genuinely believes Ukraine is a country that is rife with a large Nazi presence which can only be removed via Russian invasion. Some of these people genuinely believe that the Ukrainian government is committing a genocide of sorts against the Russian-speaking population within Ukraine.
As to whether a majority of the Russian population supports the war and actively wishes for a Russian victory, however, the answer is more unclear. While she mentioned that Russians mostly root for their country simply because it is their country, it is not entirely clear what they hope to achieve. Where a few years ago people would be willing to share their political opinions in Russia, Dunya told us that the “special military operation” and politics in general are topics people seek to avoid. After all, Russia has effectively become a country with zero freedom of speech. However, she did say that she believes and can deduce that at the bottom of their hearts, many Russians do want the war to just be over so they may return to a time of peace. In the town where some of her family members reside, she described seeing a cemetery in a recent visit fill up with Russian soldiers (before the war it had always been empty). For Russian civilians and even for Dunya, this kind of thing is the one of the only sources of information available in a country that has managed to place nearly all control of its media in the hands of the state.
As for the Ukrainian side of things, where much of her information comes from Ukrainian Telegram users, Dunya thinks there a number of pressing issues have recently come about. For one, she thinks many Ukrainians may disagree with Zelenskyy’s unwavering commitment to certain goals within the war, such as his desire to end the Russian control over Crimea. Instead, she finds that many Ukrainians may be more willing to negotiate with the Russian side if it means stopping the fighting. She also has read and heard time and time again that some western-supplied weapons are not helping as much as we may think. She has reiterated the idea that the nature of the fighting has changed greatly over the course of more than two years. According to Dunya, both Russia and Ukraine have adapted to these new tactics, while some of the equipment supplied by the United States and others has been less useful than we predicted. For example, the usage of cheap and effective weaponry has become quite prevalent on both sides, with $100 drones being able to take out entire multi-million dollar tanks, rendering them almost useless.
Despite this, Dunya sees the war coming to a close in the somewhat-near future. She expects the outcome to be somewhat of a Russian victory, albeit one where Ukraine manages to maintain its existence as a sovereign nation. She holds that it will be rather difficult for Ukraine to pull off a full victory over Russia, given both Russia’s substantial size advantage and its ability to produce weaponry, ammunition and equipment at a much faster rate. She did, however, reassuringly assert that Putin would not invade a NATO country like he is invading Ukraine right now, attributing this to his desire to remain in power and indicating that such an invasion would be “suicidal.”
In reality, the future to come is anyone’s guess. The war may end any day, or it may last a decade. The fact is that the course of world history has been changed forever by this war. Tens and tens of thousands have died while millions have been displaced. The political order on the European continent and around the world is facing one of the 21st century’s most pressing challenges since Russia’s 2022 invasion, and the future may bring only more.
