The biggest election year of all time
In 2024, nations representing over four billion people will usher their citizens to the polls. Some elections, like Russia’s, will be shams. Most will be democratically contested, including in titanic democracies like the U.S., India, Indonesia and Mexico. There has never been a bigger year for democracy.
In the United States, voters will in all likelihood choose between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in a contest that will match that of 2020 in its vitriol and global significance. Regardless of which candidate triumphs, this year’s cycle will be characterized by the increasing visibility of American political polarization. Russia and China may seek to take advantage of Biden’s busy campaign trail schedule to distract America from the increasing march of autocracy.
Meanwhile, in India, Narendra Modi will enter his tenth year in power with a significant popular mandate from the Indian public. Although Modi’s 77% approval rating lends his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Hindu nationalist party an almost-insurmountable lead in the elections, there will likely be disquiet among the international community over Modi’s mounting hostility towards India’s Muslim minority population.
Rumblings of objection will also emerge in Indonesia, where the wildly popular president, Joko Widodo (known popularly as Jokowi), will attempt to build a political dynasty as he leaves office after two terms. The leading candidate is an establishment figure who has selected Jokowi’s son as his running mate.
Separately, Mexico will elect its first female president (the two frontrunners are both women), and bid “adios” to Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the left-wing president who has made little progress on his campaign promises after five years in office.
Finally, the U.K. will hold its general election no later than mid-January 2025. Rishi Sunak, the Conservative incumbent, will probably lose, as he trails the liberal Labour Party candidate, Sir Keir Starmer, by as many as twenty points.
China’s economy will continue to stall
China, whose core social contract exchanges personal freedoms for world-beating economic growth, will remain economically anemic next year, much to the discontent of ruling Communist Party elites. Much of China’s GDP growth has historically been propelled by real estate development, who unsustainably borrow billions of yuan to build mega-developments that are then bought by speculators. Economic sense has finally caught up with these companies – particularly China Evergrande Group (120 billion dollars in debt) and Country Garden Holdings – and many are on the verge of bankruptcy. In central China, cities large enough to accommodate tens of thousands of residents are half-finished and empty. The government could let these developers fail, to the detriment of Communist officials who have invested millions in property. Or, it could organize an expensive and unpopular bail-out of property giants. The government seems unlikely to risk either of these options, so will probably turn to the age-old technique of looking the other way and hoping that things will fix themselves.
America’s economy will pull ahead of its counterparts in Europe
By contrast, the U.S. economy will remain dynamic, especially in comparison to European economies. The E.U. will probably experience at least three months of economic decline this year. American companies, though, are profiting hugely from the popularity of generative AI as well as government industrial subsidies. Together, these factors may add 1.5% per year to U.S. economic growth for the next decade. Europe is also suffering from the tense geopolitical climate as Western nations confront Russia and China. Russia, which used to provide cheap fuel to most of Europe, has now cut off its supplies, making electricity expensive and harming chemical manufacturing. Meanwhile, Germany (historically the most dynamic European economy), is suffering doubly as exports to China fall.
Advanced computer chips will begin production in the U.S.
In what will be a hectic and divisive year for Americans, welcome news should brighten the mood in the fourth quarter of 2024. Intel, one of the United States’ leading chip manufacturers, may begin production of super-fast two-nanometer chips at a domestic facility by the end of the year – the fastest in the world. Although the output will be limited, U.S. industry will be heartened if the government’s industrial policy demonstrates success by the end of the year. The best semiconductor computer chips, which have a myriad of military, consumer and industrial applications, are overwhelmingly manufactured in Taiwan, a place that some analysts consider vulnerable to Chinese invasion or intervention. Securing domestic production is a boost to U.S. security, but other parts of the supply chain are far from assured. Improving American oversight of all elements of chip manufacturing will be a top priority in 2024.
Consumer virtual reality will receive a boost
In the spring of 2024, the consumer-products titan Apple will release its newest product: Vision Pro, a headset for virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR). Vision Pro, which will retail for $3499, is expected to sell a modest 200,000 units in its first year (mostly Apple die-hards) — a trifle compared to the iPhone, which sells more than 200,000,000 times per year. However, even if Vision Pro is not likely to become a product with such popular appeal as the rest of Apple’s range, it is indicative of a growing interest by big companies in VR and AR. Chief among these is Meta, which Mark Zuckerberg renamed in 2021 to reflect a focus on the ‘metaverse,’ an industry term for a theorized virtual world in which users will interact, work, and shop. Zuckerberg’s bid to pivot his company in the direction of this fantasy has so far been unsuccessful. Meta’s Reality Labs division has hemorrhaged nearly $50 billion in the last few years. Apple’s initiative will come as competition to Meta, but will also give the VR industry as a whole a boost. Apple, for its part, will likely lose money on Vision Pro but has set up a development platform called VisionOS to promote the advancement of its technology. It will be poised to capitalize if VR ever takes off so dramatically as Meta foresees. Whether Zuckerberg’s cyber-reality will ever come to dominate the world as mobile phones and personal computers have in the past thirty years remains an open question. 2024, however, is likely to see a surge in investment in the field.
GLP-1 agonists will start making the world thinner
Last year, the drug firms Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk introduced a new class of weight-loss drugs that activate an appetite-controlling receptor called GLP-1. The firms’ respective drugs, sold under the names Mounjaro (Eli Lilly) and Ozempic/Wegovy (Novo Nordisk) lower patients’ weight by about one-fifth, as well as reduce the risk of heart disease. Almost 70% of Americans are overweight or obese, and the market for drugs to reduce weight promises to be a big one – as much as $100 billion per year by the mid-2030s. They are especially lucrative because most users regain weight after halting treatment, meaning that patients using GLP-1 agonists may remain on them in the long term. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk shares soared as the miraculous GLP-1 drugs were introduced: Lilly is worth 60% more now than it was at the beginning of the year. In 2024, GLP-1 agonists will continue to make the world thinner. This year, they will become cheaper and more widely available. Drug firms are boosting production, foreseeing significant global demand and many insurers or governments may soon begin to subsidize the drugs. This means that millions more people, both in the United States and abroad, will be spending billions next year on GLP-1 agonists. Good news for the world’s health – and pharmaceutical giants’ wealth.
