UConn defeated San Diego State 76 – 59 to win the 2023 NCAA Tournament, capping off a historically dominant March Madness run.
Rewind to a year ago in college basketball. Another tournament had been capped off, highlighting storylines such as St. Peters’ miraculous tournament run, Coach K’s last tournament before retirement, and of course, the National Champions: the Kansas Jayhawks.
Amongst the tournament as a whole, however, the recurring theme was the influence that college basketball royalty had on the tournament. The “blue blood” teams – Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, Kentucky and UCLA – are the so-called ‘elite’ of college basketball. Within each of these programs, there is a rich history of National Championships and remarkable tournament success. Additionally, these programs produce significant NBA talent every year. Indeed, the blue bloods of college basketball have carved out a niche in college basketball, in which they are deeply respected by the college basketball world.
With the exception of Kentucky, who was knocked out in a first-round dramatic upset against St. Peters, and UCLA who went out in the Sweet 16, the blue bloods in the tournament thrived. The success of each team culminated in a Final Four berth for Duke, North Carolina and Kansas, along with Villanova. Duke, North Carolina and Kansas have deep basketball roots in the final four, as each of those teams had reached the Final Four at least 10 times before the tournament began. Although Villanova is not historically considered a college basketball powerhouse, they made 3 Final Four appearances since 2009 and won two championships in 2016 and ‘18. With the collection of teams in the Final Four, one of them was bound to add to their school’s rich basketball history and win a ring. Kansas won the Championship in a thrilling game over North Carolina, thus ending the 2022 college basketball season.
Flash forward to a year later, and the tournament has shaken out in a far different manner. In stark contrast to the success of basketball royalty in college basketball last year, this year’s blue blood did not meet their yearly quota of tournament success. North Carolina didn’t even make the tournament, and Duke, Kentucky and Kansas lost in the second round. UCLA had the most success of any blue blood, reaching the Sweet 16, but was eliminated by Gonzaga. The blue blood teams are always preseason favorites as National Champions, so an early exit for each program was shocking. So, with the blue bloods eliminated from the tournament, the story shifted. It became the year of “new blood” in the tournament.
While it occasionally happens that no blue bloods make the Final Four (most recently in 2013), this year seemed different. Kansas was a 1 seed, UCLA a 2, and Duke and Kentucky were 5, and 6 seeds respectively, but expected to outperform their seeding. These were undoubtedly talented teams, however, from the first round of the tournament, it was clear that many of the mid-major programs were able to match their talent. Cinderella runs – when teams far exceed expectations – in March are common occurrences, but usually, it’s only one team that drastically outperforms expectations. This year, there were three teams that significantly outperformed expectations.
With the exception of UConn, the other three teams to make the Final Four – Miami, Florida Atlantic, and San Diego State – all reached the first Final Four in program history. This wasn’t the Final Four analysts predicted, perhaps they wrote off the underdog teams in the tournament too early.
San Diego State, Florida Atlantic and Miami all had fantastic regular seasons, respectively. San Diego State came into the tournament sporting a stifling defense but was looked down on because of their lacking strength-of-schedule, coming from the Mountain West conference. Florida Atlantic had a 31 – 4 regular season record, but no one even gave them a look coming into the tournament because they were in the Conference USA division. While the ACC is a Top-Five conference, they had a down year in 2023, resulting in downplaying the accomplishments of Miami, even though they were a borderline top-15 team in the country for most of the year. Alas, the combination of ambiguous basketball history and non-Power 5 conferences was used to write off these teams in March, before they even stepped onto the hardwood.
UConn – an under-seeded, sleeping giant – won this year’s tourney, adding to remarkable 21st Century success in March. However, with the success of San Diego State, Florida Atlantic and Miami, the question begs: is the landscape of college basketball shifting?
In recent years, teams from mid-major D1 conferences have continued to transfer into more prestigious D1 divisions. In fact, Florida Atlantic, along with 8 other Conference USA Divisions 1 teams are leaving the conference for the 2023 – 24 season. Florida Atlantic, specifically, is transferring to the American Conference, a far more competitive division. Conference USA is just one of many examples of Division 1 programs growing more competitive, and transferring to better conferences.
Additionally, the role of the transfer portal to mid-major schools has become more significant than ever. It is becoming increasingly common for players to transfer schools mid-way through their college careers. This off-season, 1100 D1 athletes entered the transfer portal. With many of these transfers, mid-major programs snatch players away from higher-level teams. As long as the transfer portal remains prevalent, mid-major teams will continue to have outlets to pull players from and build up their rosters from what they couldn’t get at the high school level.
The next couple of years in college basketball will be telling for the future of the sport. If mid-major teams continue to achieve success in the tournament, move into more competitive D1 conferences and remain active on the transfer portal, success will befall their programs. And that’s a good thing! More competitiveness from mid-major schools is good for D1 as a whole, as it raises revenue and attracts more fans to the sport.
That said, I find it hard to believe that blue blood teams will just shrink and disappear behind these up-and-coming programs. Blue bloods still have some of the best recruiting programs in the country, and sport some of the most winning cultures in sports as a whole.
As a college basketball fan, I can confidently say that the increasing success of mid-major programs and basketball royalty is essential to the growing culture of the sport. If basketball royalty begins to face increased competition, I’m all for it.
