Day 235 and counting. Russian forces are struggling while Ukraine is finally regaining territory in the east and south. The city of Bakhmut remains a Russian target however, its troops are making progress. 70,000 citizens have already fled the city and those who remain are mostly elderly, living with no running water or electricity. With people struggling to live in Bakhmut, Russia is desperately attempting to change the narrative of the war.
On the other hand, Ukraine is now regaining territories and resources, winning both on the social spectrum and on the battlefield. The Russian government and military force’s responses to Ukraine retaking Russian captured areas, was pure panic. Hundreds of civilian men in Russia have been drafted into the military, with many people fleeing the country to avoid conscription. Missiles fired at locals in Ukrainian cities, continuing to increase the death toll in Ukraine.
Belgorod serves as an essential staging ground for Russia’s invasion and where they train soldiers as well. Several attacks, recently, have targeted Russian controlled areas far from the front lines, in areas such as Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. Strikes hit the Russian region of Belograd near the Ukrainian border wounding at least three people; according to local officials this ambush had Russia question the security of the area that has been key to the supply route for Russian troops during the war. Ukrainian officials did not comment on the attacks because of the official policy of near-total silence circulating explosions in Russian territories. They seemed to be a part of an increase of attacks in Belgorod which shares a border with Kharkiv, a northeastern region of Ukraine that Ukrainian forces regained last month in an offensive, setting Russian forces back by weeks. The city of Belgorod finds itself a target in the conflict between borders undermining President Putin’s efforts to distance Russian people from the war. This resulted in colleges and businesses in the city to conduct evacuation drills, local officials have now evacuated towns and villages that are under shelling. Forced to evacuate not only the city, but these back to back attacks caused locals to cross the border to flee fighting.
Eight months into the war and Ukraine is still resisting and hanging in the balance. Ukrainian counter offensives are making progress while Russian forces are continuing to press in other areas. However, on the battlefield Ukraine and Russian forces look different than they do on the internet. BBC writes an article quotes Olena, a Kyiv entrepreneur who manages teams of social media volunteers who uses a fake name to carry out on the behalf of Ukraine’s deficiency ministry. She says, “this is a meme nation… if this was a war of memes, we would be winning.” Her team works all day to react to news from around the country producing “punchy videos, often set to music, for the ministry’s audiences at home and abroad.” Olena’s international team pays close attention to the way they portray their messages just like Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelesky who trailers his speeches towards forgein parliaments to take into consideration local history, culture, and sensibility.
The most successful video they have produced was in August after several unexpected attacks on Russian targets in the annexed Crimea. It hit a whooping 2.2 million views and it mocked the Russians for going on holiday on the peninsula. BBC includes Olena’s interview discussing the purpose of the boost of posting on social media and that is: “The main idea is to speak to the international audience and show that Ukraine is actually capable of winning and because nobody wants to invest in losers.” Behind the screen the team carries out more “subversive work” which is designed to shine light on Russia losses and deject Ukraine’s invaders.
Through trial and error, Olena and her team have learned what works and doesn’t when approaching the Russian audience on the internet. She learned “displaying dead Russian bodies … actually didn’t work. It only united them against us,” and “ the team tried to appeal to the conscience of Russian soldiers by showing images of dead Ukraine civilians. Again, it seemed to fall on deaf ears.” It is difficult to see the impact the work is having, however, Putin’s recent decrease in mobilization has given the Ukrainian volunteers a lot of material to work with. Now they investigate Russian social media platforms looking to find their weaknesses in specific parts of the country. Scores of Telegram channels started to attract a great number of followers. One of the channels, “Ukrainian Offensive” has 96,485 followers and its slogan “fighting on the civil-meme frontlines of the information war since 2014.” This channel provides military updates, trolling of Moscow, and digs towards Western media coverage. Like most channels, this channel does not sugar coat the events that occur, including footage of dead or dying Russian soldiers.
Despite Ukraine regaining territory and antagonizing Russia on the internet, there is a pressing question that is stirring up concerns. “Will Russia push the nuclear button?” Recently, Putin has discussed the possibility of using nuclear weapons in this war. In addition, last week Putin declared a partial draft, specifically targeting men. This new development is causing panic in Russia resulting in men fleeing the country to avoid getting drafted into the military. The Chechen leader and subordinate to Putin, leader Ramzan Kadyrov, called for the use of “tactical” nuclear weapons on the battlefield. The ominous and vague talk revolved around the possibility of a nuclear war. Questions such as, if Ukraine continues to regain lost territory will Putin lose his grip on power and increase or reduce the likelihood of a nuclear attack? Although the chance of Russia using nuclear weapons is low, analysts who track Russia’s nuclear strategy are still concerned. With neither side showing signs of backing down from the war, the likelihood of a nuclear strike appears more real than it has in decades. Anya Fink, a research scientist at the Center for Naval Analysis who studies Russian doctrine, says: “For Russia, nuclear weapons, in particular non-strategic nuclear weapons, are really intended to counterbalance what they see as U.S. and NATO conventional superiority.” Fink states her opinion that the drone and cruise missile strikes this past week demonstrate that Russia has plenty of powerful standard weapons it could use to attack Ukraine. If Putin decided to make the fateful choice of using nuclear weapons, they wouldn’t use their weapons in an attack against Ukrainian frontline troops.
From accusations by Ukraine that Russia is forcibly deporting Ukrainians to Russia to possibly declaring World War III, the war is not ending. With that, the war is continuing with ups and downs for both Ukraine and Russia. One of the most significant changes in the war is that Ukraine is on the offensive at the moment with a long road ahead to a possible victory.
