What could possibly make Super Bowl Sunday even better? Jermaine Kearse made an improbable catch almost cementing the Seattle Seahawks title as back to back Super Bowl champions. In the final moments of the game Malcolm Butler intercept Russell Wilson’s pass on the goal line, leading the Patriots to victory. But, how about a snow day?
Checking HMPSDI (Horace Mann Possible Snow Day Index) is a snow day ritual for many in the Riverdale area. Countless students check Mitchell Francis’s twitter account, the man behind HMPSDI, to help estimate the likelihood of a snow day. For Senior Robby Mitchell, who had a Ms. Winik math exam the day after the Superbowl, following Mitchell Francis’s tweets eased the anxiety of a potential test.
“The night before a possible snow day is very unproductive,” said Mitchell. He added, “I spend more time reasoning why I won’t have school and why it’s ok to not do my homework.”
It was about 12 years ago when Mr. Francis started predicting the probability of snow days. He is a full time math teacher at Horace Mann and found working on snow day calculations fun.
“I love snow days as much as my students,” said Mr. Francis. “At the time, I just did it for my class, and of course they spread it throughout the school. I didn’t have any technology back then.”
The word spread quickly; not only did the high school begin to catch on to Mr. Francis’s predictions but also the middle and lower schools. Even parents started to ask for Mr. Francis’s forecast so they could gather sleds and snow-pants. Now with over 1,000 followers on Twitter, Mr. Francis is a household name throughout the hill schools.
“In 2010 I started tweeting,” said Francis. “It’s all fun and I like that students get excited about the snow. I get excited about the snow. In the beginning, some of the administration was saying you are getting the kids all riled up and I said, “It’s snow! Kids get riled up anyway when it snows.’”
While www.snowdaycalculator.com receives some recognition by the student body, it is ultimately Mr. Francis’s tweets which are most relied upon. Coming from a math professor, there are many different factors that determine the snow day predictions.
“It involves multi-variable calculus, checking the American and European model, checking radar, checking news media, and the biggest thing is I talk to the snow gods and then I come out with the calculation,” said Francis.
The end goal is to predict a decision that a group of three people make: Damian Fernandez (Fieldston), Thomas M. Kelly (Horace Mann), and Dominic A.A. Randolph (Riverdale).
“The three heads of school communicate together. We get on the phone at 5:00am, and we have to make a decision together,” Dr. Fernandez said.
As the newest head of school on the hill, Dr. Fernandez indicated his reliance on his colleagues’ experience with snow days. Dr. Fernandez understands the safety implications, and while he usually favors opening school, his fellow heads of school err on the side of caution.
“So what I do after we make a decision is… I call all the principals and heads of facilities, who then notify FLIK and the bus company,” Dr. Fernandez said. “And then everyone (parents, teachers and students) must be notified by 6:00am, that’s the rule.”
While it may seem like a no brainer to simply call a snow day, there are in fact costs to closing school.
“What happens after a lot of snow days is we have to think about classroom time and getting back lost days,” said Dr. Fernandez. “We have lost professional day the past two years, which is a time our entire faculty comes together. I have extended the amount of teacher days since I have been here to around 172.”
Mr. Francis’s final tweet of Super Bowl Sunday read, “The HMPSDI for Monday is 50 percent.” Indeed, at 5am on Monday morning Dr. Fernandez and his colleagues ultimately canceled school, sparing Robby Mitchell from the demands of a math test, giving him more time to linger about a great national mystery: WHY DIDN’T MARSHAWN LYNCH RUN THE BALL!?
